Who's Going to Win the Big Brother Final?

I was worried, when I heard Channel 5 were going to have a crack at screening Big Brother, but I must say that the current series has been excellent, as has Brian Dowling. Of all the series to date, this topsy-turvy one is probably the most difficult to call, but here's my take on it;

Louise, at the centre, is more of a gameplayer than she lets on.  In the early weeks, she sat back, without doing or saying too much. She has looks and personality, and decided to stay out of trouble, hoping to emerge from the pack, when the field narrowed a bit.

She saw Jay as her golden opportunity to reach the final. He's besotted with her, but although she has developed some true feelings for him, she's not quite genuine. The biggest giveaway was when she dumped him one Sunday, because she thought he was going to be put up for eviction against Aaron, only to take Jay back the very next day, when she realised he wasn't going anywhere, because Anton and Aden were put up for eviction as well. I'm sure that outside the house, she'll keep it going with him for a while to get magazine deals, but she'll eventually discard him, and will end up a footballer's wife.

Louise is nevertheless a nice person, and since emerging from her shell, she has demonstrated top-girl personality and looks. But apart from her ongoing association with Jay, she hasn't really done or said much. The relationship with Jay has also revealed her to be a little shallow and vulgar, so I don't think she can win. May well be evicted, this coming Thursday night.

Tom was in terrible trouble in the early weeks, as all too often, he often couldn't hide his true bitchy, backstabbing nature. In the early running, he was fortunate not to be put up for eviction, which gave him just enough time to formulate his one and only attempt at true gameplay - his engineering of the 'fun' partnership with Alex. He would have been gone a long time ago, but for that, and he knows it.

To be fair, the pair's antics have often been good to watch. Tom's good fun, when the mood takes him, but still struggles on occasion to contain his spiteful streak. The nasty side of Tom means he can't win, but he might just make the final, surviving eviction over Louise on Thursday.

  
Alex, on the left, has in truth contributed little more than her smile. The long hair extensions were important to her, because they are the only thing that disguise her mediocre looks, which are as plain as her airhead personality, and often unintelligible speech.

But she may well win. She was quiet in the early weeks, but the 'fun' partnership with Tom gave her the change to emerge a little. She knew it as well, and once the partnership had started, she began to visit the Diary Room more often, to tell the public how she was doing. Like Mark, her efforts to entertain often feel a bit forced, but her happy-go-lucky nature could win the series, because consistently smiling through all the conflict has made her look good, against the other housemates.

People who sit on the fence, paint a smile, and don't do or say very much can win Big Brother, look at Rachel Rice and Sophie Reade. Alex has contributed even less than they did, but might win by default, as she's the only one who has steered clear of conflict, which has possibly generated enough reasons why the others can't win.

The producers are trying to bolster Alex's chances, by giving her more coverage this week. But the one thing that might hurt her chances was the revelation that she once short-changed a blind person to buy her own lunch, a tale that indicates she's not as squeaky-clean as she seems.

Jay, a brash, but likeable Northener. He's been playing a game, from the very start. He formed and led the 'Wolf Pack', in an attempt to dominate others and subtlely influence nomination voting, with the aim of eliminating housemates from the series, one by one.

Jay always perceived arch-enemy Aaron to be his greatest threat. He employed a strategy to eliminate those around Aaron first, before concentrating on the main target. But the plan didn't work out, so Jay cleverly struck up an awkward friendship with Aaron, after the last Wolf Pack member was evicted. As part of his gameplay, Jay also consciously cut back on swearing, from the point he was first put up for eviction.

He's the most genuine of all the housemates, and has often been entertaining to watch. He has a large female fan base, and a small chance to win. Last night, he finally resolved the latest conflict with Aaron, which erupted over the purchase of birthday presents for Tom and Alex. It was hard for Jay to swallow his pride, and discuss it again with Aaron, but I think he knew he had to do it, to keep any chance of winning alive.

Jay's vulgar side will probably prevent him from winning the series. In particular, wiping his bum on Louise's pillowcase didn't do him any favours.

Aaron is trying to win it for his son, and is the biggest gameplayer in Big Brother history. He's very cleverly put himself at the centre of most things, almost from the beginning. The flirting with Maisy, then Rebeckah. The conflict with Tom, who thought Aaron fancied him. Taking on Jay's Wolf Pack, when they forced his friend Mark out. Deliberately failing shopping tasks, to deny Jay and Anton food. The tumultuous relationship with Faye - I think he developed some genuine feelings for her, but she was also part of his game to reach the final. The conflict with Faye's sister, who arrived as a newcomer, to stir the relationship up. The character assassination of the friends' and families' nominations. The electric shock nominations, when he voted contrary to the other housemates' plan to stage a result. The conflict with Jay and Louise, over birthday presents for Alex and Tom.

Originally, I thought Aaron was making a big mistake, when he objected to Louise and Jay spending £1,000 of the prize money on Tom and Alex. Jay and Louise were trying to gain viewer votes by displaying generosity, but there was also a genuine warmth to their desire to purchase the presents. Ignoring them for a few days initially made Aaron look isolated and bad, but then he very cleverly turned the situation around. He began to regularly play Tom and Alex's silly games, which eventually made Louise and Jay look isolated instead, and perhaps a little guilty of trying to buy votes. Eventually, Aaron reduced muscleman Jay to tears, forcing him to make the first move to reconcile the situation, which in turn made Aaron look good, for agreeing to bury the hatchet. And the more I thought about it, the more I realised that Aaron had engineered the situation, to re-ignite the conflict with Jay, providing one last opportunity to push his buttons. And the fact that Jay eventually got warned by Big Brother for becoming too aggressive makes Aaron an even bigger schemer than 'Nasty Nick' Bateman. 

You see, sometimes it's been upfront, and sometimes it's been underlying, but the simmering battle between Aaron and Jay has been the defining feature of the series, and Aaron knows it. The winner of the battle is not quite yet decided, but Aaron's clearly had the upper hand to date.

If winning Big Brother was judged by the contribution of individual housemates, Aaron's got it won, hands-down. But gameplaying is unpopular in many circles, and Aaron's strops and sulkiness when things don't go his way might cost him. From an early stage, I thought the ongoing conflict between Aaron and Jay would ultimately determine the winner, but there's also the danger it might scupper them both, and let an agreeable neutral through to win.


So who is going to win the Big Brother Final? Although I want Aaron to win, my final prediction is;

1. Alex (up 2 from last week).
2. Aaron (down 1).
3. Jay (down 1).
4. Tom (up 1).

For all my previous November, October and September posts on house dynamics, please check out the right-hand sidebar, towards the top of this blog.

Conrad Murray - Guilty or Not Guilty?

The 'Michael Jackson' trial is finally over. I've followed the thrust of it throughout, watching the excellent live coverage from Sky News, here in the UK. So is Conrad Murray guilty of the involuntary manslaughter of Michael Jackson? Here's my take on it all.

1. Murray had been administering the surgical anasthetic propofol to Jackson for quite some time, in conjunction with other drugs. The desired effect was to help the singer sleep, so that he could fulfil his performing and business commitments. The time Jackson had been using propofol and other drugs preceded his involvement with Murray, and Murray unwisely chose to continue the treatment program for money. Murray fully realised the dangers involved with using propofol, but ordered very significant quantities of it, because Jackson had asked Murray to accompany him on a forthcoming 10-month tour. One evening, Jackson ultimately died from an overdose of propofol, administered in combination with other drugs.

Does Murray's agreement to use propofol constitute the single 'substantial factor' in Jackson's death that is necessary for criminal negligence, and thereby involuntary manslaughter to be proven? I think Murray's attitude to the use of propofol was extremely unwise, but for me, the answer is no. Better to administer the drug in some form of controlled manner, than to let Jackson give it to himself.

2. There's no doubt that Murray didn't have the ideal resources available to properly administer propofol, monitor its use on Jackson, or take necessary corrective action should an unexpected event happen. Does this constitute the single 'substantial factor' required for guilt? For me, the answer is again no. Other examples came up, where propofol has been used in a non-surgical environment, for example experimentally, or in a hospice. It was recognised that in reality, such uses might not have all of the ideal safeguards in place, and for me, it wasn't proven that Murray's efforts were unreasonable, including restricting Jackson personal access to the drug.

3. Did Murray negligently administer enough propofol to kill Jackson, in conjunction with the effect of other drugs, as a 'substantial factor' in his death? I believe that Murray used a drip-feed to administer propofol to Jackson, since one or even two 25ml shots would have probably not put Jackson to sleep for long. Murray admitted to police that drip-feeds had been added on many occasions previously for this purpose. I also believe that Murray must have smuggled the drip out of the room, since none of the equipment recovered by police showed much evidence of propofol being used.

But whilst I think Murray may well have messed up the propofol drip-feed, feeding Jackson too much of the drug, I don't think the prosecution proved it beyond a reasonable doubt. And for me, the broken syringe on the floor constitutes reasonable doubt that Jackson might have self-administered the drug - even in a state of panic, why would a trained physician throw a valuable asset on the floor?

Finally, given the unusual setting, I don't think it was unreasonable for Murray to step into the bathroom for two minutes, and for me, it wasn't proven beyond a reasonable doubt that he was out of the immediate area for any longer, thereby abandoning his duty of care.   

So for me, the required 'substantial factor' was not proven here.

4. Did Murray act negligently in his attempts to save Jackson, once discovering that he was no longer breathing, as a 'substantial factor' in his death? You can imagine Murray's state of mind, upon making the discovery. Jackson was one of the most famous men in the world, and Murray faced ruin, if he couldn't save him. I think that in his state of mind, Murray forgot his medical training, and made a hash of trying to resuscitate Jackson. But I don't think the prosecution proved beyond a reasonable doubt that Murray's actions contributed to his death.

It's what Murray didn't do that condemns him. He didn't call 911, or organise a call to 911, in a timeframe that was anywhere near reasonable. It was quite deliberate, in my view. He gambled that he could save Jackson alone, and the world would never need to know what happened. When his gamble didn't work out, he didn't offer full information to other medical personnel, hoping that everything might go away, or at least that an investigation might be delayed.

There was no excuse for not calling emergency services, pretty much straight away. It wouldn't have been unreasonable to conduct a short attempt at resuscitation first, but he had his phone on his person, and it had a speaker. How long would it have taken to dial 911, and activate the speaker, enabling him to alert emergency services whilst continuing his efforts to save Jackson?

It's this inaction alone that constitutes the single 'substantial factor' in Jackson's death, that Murray was responsible for. Murray's delay in calling 911 denied Jackson the opportunity for paramedics to save him.

So whilst Murray is guilty as charged, I do hope there will be a little leniency for him. He was clearly placed under enormous pressure to supply propofol to Jackson, and there was a lot of money and prestige attached to having the singer as a client.

Who's Going To Win Big Brother? After The Electric Shock Nominations....

Aaron's had a bit of a bad week, hasn't he? The electric shock nominations on Sunday night showed just what a gameplayer he is. The remaining six housemates came up with a plan to nominate each other in turn, so they would all face the final public eviction vote together. Aaron played along because he was first to nominate, but when Big Brother wouldn't accept an engineered result, the votes were scrapped, and the housemates had to start all over again.

In the revised voting, Aaron wasn't first to nominate two housemates to face eviction. Alex nominated before him, and from the look on her face, I believe her nominations were genuine. Recognising he had been given a chance to put Louise up for eviction, and guarantee his place in next week's final, Aaron played the game and nominated her, knowing that if she voted for Tom or Alex, Louise would face four opponents in the public vote - not a bad place to be.

What happened next was edited out of the main highlights show, but was shown on the fanzine 'Big Brother's Bit on the Side'. In the highlights show, Louise was shown nominating Faye, meaning that just the two of them now face eviction. But Louise actually nominated Tom first, before Big Brother forced her to change her engineered vote.

Aaron took all the blame for what happened. He could have nominated differently, meaning that the plan for all of the housemates to be put up for eviction together could have still been fulfilled, but he chose to play the game instead. And why not? It is a game, and he's trying to win it for his son. It's fair to say that he deliberately voted contradictory to the plan, and that Louise faces the public eviction vote because of it. But for housemates to blame him for Faye being included in the eviction vote was unfair, since Louise had the last nominations, and could have voted for Alex instead of Tom. And under that scenario, Faye would have faced the public vote anyway, albeit against four opponents, instead of just one.

Although blaming Aaron for the debacle was unfair, his stroppy, sulky reaction to Faye's venomous attitude didn't do him any favours, especially given that just the night before, he had withdrawn from the group because he didn't like the choice of music for a party. Tuesday night's pointless argument with Faye over her choice of clothes for another musical evening was also not good to watch.

Everything however has settled down, since then. Aaron has won back Faye's affections, and has even started to get on with Tom a bit. He's more full-on in his relationship with Faye now, in an effort to keep her in the house over Louise this Friday.

I still think Aaron can win. He's deep and engaging, and has been at the centre of everything, from the start. The flirting with Maisy and Rebeckah. Then Tom thought Aaron fancied him. Aaron took up with Faye, and then took on Jay's Wolf Pack, when they forced Mark out. Then Faye's sister arrived as a newcomer, to stir everything up. The friends' and families' nominations were a character assassination of Aaron, and the electric shock nominations were a disaster for him, albeit a little unfairly.

Throughout it all, the only thing Aaron has done 'wrong' is playing a game, a game which Big Brother has often made very difficult for him. Yes, he's the biggest gameplayer in the show's long history, and although he does have some genuine feelings for Faye, she has always been part of his game to reach the final. But he's contributed the most out of all the housemates, and I think the show would have been quite dull without him.

I do think that one more extended, sulky strop will destroy Aaron's chances, but if he ups his game in the final week, and stays out of trouble, he could win. He does have a big fan base, which appears to have stayed loyal.

Louise, in the middle, there. Big Brother did her a favour by only showing her electric shock nomination of Faye in the highlights show. It made it look as though she had sacrificed herself to keep Tom in the house for Alex's forthcoming birthday party, even though she had actually nominated Tom first.

Louise is a bit more of a gameplayer than you might think. She stayed quiet, keeping herself out of trouble in the early weeks, knowing her looks and personality could emerge from a narrower field. Then she took up with Jay, thinking he might carry her to the final. I do think she has developed some genuine feelings for him, but knows it can't work on the outside. Otherwise, why did she drop him like a stone, for the one day she thought he was going to be put up for eviction against Aaron?

She has the looks and personality to win, there's no doubt about that. But coming out of her shell has revealed her as a little shallow and vulgar, and that's why she can't win. She might well survive this Friday's eviction ahead of Faye, as a lot of people think she's 100% genuine with Jay. But whilst she'll keep the relationship with him going on the outside for magazine deals, she'll eventually drop him, and end up a footballer's wife.

Faye, a naive and paranoid 19-year-old. Although Aaron often doesn't say the right thing to her, she is inclined to start an argument over practically nothing. But she's a lovely person, and has substance. I think she's worked out that despite her feelings for Aaron, he isn't for her on the outside. But she's now gone full-on with him, thinking it will keep her in the house over Louise this Friday. I think that plan might backfire, since many people might be inclined to phone in and save Louise, just to see how Aaron will react to Faye's absence. Aaron fans might also want to save Louise, to give him a clean slate, and a chance to be himself in the final week.

Despite Louise being bookies' favourite to be evicted this week, I do think Faye will go. The reasons above are the wrong ones, since Faye has contributed much more than Louise. But that's the way it goes. It'll be a shame, since with a strong final week, I think Faye had a small chance of winning. But regardless, juicy magazine deals with Aaron await on the outside.

It's hard not to like Jay, a brash but very genuine northener. But his genuine feelings for Louise are not quite reciprocated, I fear. He's upped his game this week, and has been both entertaining and caring. His attempts to further his friendship with Aaron has done him some favours, particularly given that they were long time enemies. Jay's efforts to reconcile Faye and Aaron's relationship were also admirable.

Jay's got a growing fan base of girl voters, and could still win, with a big final week. But I don't think someone who thinks it's funny to wipe his bum on his girlfriend's pillowcase can quite do it.

Alex, on the left. Her fun, happy-go-lucky attitude may well win it for her, combined with the fact that she needs the money more than most - but the revelation that she once short-changed a blind person to get her own lunch did her no favours at all. She's made a big effort to be more entertaining this week. But she would be a default winner for me, in the sense that she might win because there are reasons the others can't. In truth, she has contributed little more than a smile. Even previous fence-sitters Sophie Reade and Rachel Rice did a little bit more than that.

Did you notice that Alex was preening her false hair extenstions in the mirror, even when trying to walk though a trap consisting of strings between two walls, whilst balancing glasses on a tray during the 'All-White' task? That's because she knows the mass of hair extensions are the only thing that disguise her mediocre looks, which are in reality as plain as her personality. She's a complete airhead to boot, and I can only understand about 50% of what little she says.

If her coming birthday bash is more sparkly than Anton's, you'll know Big Brother wants her to win. It would be her only big storyline to date.

You've got to hand it to him, he's been entertaining this week. But the fun partnership he engineered with Alex is the only thing that's kept him in so long. As well as making me laugh a few times, he's also annoyed me with his regular bitching and backstabbing against Aaron, including a couple of nasty insults during the 'Love Story' task.

Although Tom can be fun when the mood takes him, he can't help his bitchy, backstabbing nature, which he has failed to contain on a number of occasions throughout the series. My wife, Debi, says that it's the 'queen' in him. I think that's about right, and his nastiness is the reason he can't win.

So who is going to win? I'm going to stick to my guns, and not predict a 'default' winner;

1. Aaron (up 1 from last week).
2. Jay (down 1).
3. Alex (up 2).
4. Louise (same as last week).
5. Tom (new entry).

Watch this space next week, for my final Big Brother prediction. For my previous posts on house dynamics, check out the October and September posts on the right-hand sidebar.

British Big Brother - Sunday Night Nominations Forecast - Tom v Alex?

In a shock sudden twist, housemates will nominate face-to-face tonight, in place of the normal Monday nomination process. Dressed in Haloween costumes, they will sit in electric chairs, and one vote equals one electric shock for the nominated housemate.

I think the new alliance between Jay and Aaron means something. I believe the two boyfriend-girlfriend pairs of Jay and Louise, and Aaron and Faye will club their nominations together, and put the 'fun' pair of Tom and Alex up for eviction. Tom will go this Friday, leaving Alex isolated in the final week.

I also think only Faye, Alex or Aaron can win now. Faye's been involved in a lot of arguments over the past couple of weeks, and the revelation that Alex once short-changed a blind person to get her own lunch was a bit of a shocker, so it's Aaron for me now.

Watch this space for more, after the nominated housemates are revealed.

The Eurozone Crisis - A British Perspective

It all sounds a bit complicated, doesn't it? There's a lot of money floating around. The trouble is, everyone owes it to everyone else. Some of the economies on mainland Europe are in big trouble, with colossal debts, especially Greece. The taxpayers of wealthier economies have a big problem with helping out debt-ridden economies, again and again. And it's been rumbling on for ages.

For me, the Eurozone crisis is very simple. Fixed exchange rates don't work, and the ultimate in fixing your exchange rate is to have the same money as someone else, it's one unit of your money to one unit of theirs.

Historically, fixed exchange rate systems have never worked, even when rates are fixed within limits. Look at the Gold Standard of the 1920's and 30's. Look at the Bretton Woods system, in the post-war period. Look at 'the snake', in the 1970's.

Eventually, they all fell apart. They were introduced in the interests of creating economic stability, but couldn't be maintained, despite rescue efforts, because a significant disparity will eventually arise in the performance of one or more of the economies involved, against the others.

Does that sound like a familiar story to you, based on news coverage from the recent past? Just ask yourself a question. If you loaned a lot of money to a friend, and discovered they couldn't pay you back, would you lend them money again? And if you did lend them a lot of money for a second time, and they couldn't pay you back, would you do it on a third occasion?

You wouldn't, would you? If you did, you would be very unwise. Eventually, the friend walks away, and is forced to go it alone, after running out of people who are willing to chase a lost cause. And the money is gone.

Eventually, the Eurozone will break up, in monetary terms. The Euro was launched in pursuance of the dream of a united Europe. From a British perspective, thank goodness we stayed away from a united currency, and I do admire David Cameron's stance on no more bailouts. His stance is also correct on Britain's membership of the EU, and the proposed referendum. It would be insanity for Britain to pull out, it's about the advantages of open trade, not the money you use.

Who's Going To Win Big Brother? The Final Shout

Alex, on the left there, has upped her game just a little this week. Winning the boat-rowing task did her chances a favour.

And she's started to come to the Diary Room a bit more often, to tell Big Brother and the public how she's doing. But it all feels a little forced, like Mark's efforts to use the Diary Room as an entertainment platform.

Her positive attitude at all times might just allow her to emerge from the relationship-based arguments and faction-based backstabbing (see below for more on these things), and win. But for me, she hasn't contributed nearly enough, and if I wanted to watch four-year old games, I would have watched PlaySchool, not Big Brother.

A clever move on Tom's part, instigating the still-developing relationship with Alex. He'd be long gone, but for that, and he thinks Alex will carry him to the final. But underneath his contribution to the new fun partnership, he's bitchy, backstabbing and spiteful. The pairing with Alex may well result in him finishing sixth, keeping him in over Harry.

Have you noticed that Jay has almost completely stopped swearing, since last being put up for eviction?  He's the biggest character left, and the most genuine of the remaining housemates. Underneath all the muscle and bravado, there's a nice and caring guy. He's even begun to get chummy with his old enemy, Aaron. Jay's feelings for Louise are real, although I doubt they're fully reciprocated.

Not fully participating in a couple of tasks did him no favours. He could still win with a big effort towards the end, but it'll take a lot to make people forget that he was a part of Anton's lies about Aaron, after the crypt task.

Louise, Jay's girl, at the centre of the picture. She appears to have developed some genuine feelings for Jay, but I think they're largely false, and are designed to get her to the final. I'm sure she fancies him, but knows he's not for her, when they get out of the house. That's why she dropped him like a stone, when she thought he would be up for eviction against Aaron. She took Jay back the very next day, when she realised he wasn't going anywhere, because Anton and Aden were up for eviction as well.

Louise lacks substance, and will ultimately end up as a footballer's wife.

Harry's continued to grow on me, despite becoming more stuck-up, of late. But the three relationships (Jay and Louise, Aaron and Faye, Tom and Alex) are the defining feature of the show now, and he's outside of that picture. I don't think a fox hunter can win, and he'll finish behind Tom, if put up for eviction next week.

Jemma was against Aaron's relationship with her sister Faye, before she came into the house as a late newcomer. Most of it is an older sister's natural reaction, to Faye becoming involved with an older man.

But Jemma played her cards close to her chest for a while, pretending to give Aaron the benefit of the doubt. Anton's lies about Aaron's attitude towards Faye pushed Jemma over the edge, prompting Jemma to confront Aaron, sooner than she otherwise might have done. Anton knew that would be the case, of course, and the lies were his parting shot to Aaron, one of the last actions of the dying Wolf Pack faction. And unfortunately, Aaron was never going to forgive Jemma, once she had accused him of being false with Faye.

I think Jemma is very competitive, but is confrontational with it, in a spiteful and bitchy way. I don't like the way she celebrates Aaron's misfortunes. That's not sporting, and it's not Big Brother. And if anyone is trying to mess with Faye's head, it's Jemma, not Aaron.

Jemma is up for eviction against Aaron this week, and I very much hope she goes. But unfortunately, there's just a chance that Jemma's prior appearances on Gladiators might generate enough votes to keep her in, even though Aaron has a big fan base. She doesn't care about Big Brother anymore, she knows she can't win. She wants to go home, because she knows that she can't stop arguing with Faye, like sisters often do. If Jemma does stay in on Friday, she'll walk off the series, mission against Aaron accomplished.

I only heard this week that Faye is just 19 years old. She comes across older than that, except for her teenage paranoia, and propensity to argue over very little. Mind you, Faye has plenty to be paranoid about, she has seen that her sister and mother don't believe Aaron is good for her. Their view is a natural reaction to a 19-year-old family member falling for a 30-year-old guy, and I'm sure that the families of the other contestants had that in mind, when they nominated Aaron to face eviction against Jemma (see my previous post http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/british-big-brother-families-and.html).

Faye could still win, she has substance. But it'll take a big effort towards the end, given all the arguments she's had with Jemma and Aaron.

Dear old Aaron, he's been through a lot, hasn't he? Most things have revolved around him from the start. He flirted with Maisy and Rebeckah. Tom thought Aaron fancied him. Aaron started a relationship with Faye, then took on Jay's Wolf Pack, after they drove Mark out. Then Jemma arrived, an ex-Gladiator, and Faye's sister. Big Brother messed with Aaron's head some more, by allowing the results of nominations to be altered. And finally, the friends' and families' nominations were a character assassination of him.

When I first heard the news, I thought allowing friends and families to nominate was a nice 'twist'. But when I watched it unfold in full, it left me feeling a bit sick. It really upset Faye and Aaron, two of the best housemates, and that was a bit difficult to watch. The producers must have known it would happen, and I was left wondering why they did it, why they allowed the distress that it caused, and is still causing.

Is it because Big Brother decides who wins? In the last series, my wife and I worked out pretty quickly that John James Parton wasn't genuine about Josie Gibson, but the producers didn't upset them by introducing family members, or letting relations and friends speak from the outside world, because they knew what big issues would have done to Josie....

So what's the real truth about Aaron and Faye? There's no doubt that Faye's feelings are genuine. I do think that at the beginning of their relationship, Faye was primarily a part of Aaron's game to reach the final. But as things went on, I think Faye grew on him more and more, and now he's pretty genuine about it. I don't think the relationship will work in the outside world, but that's not the point. Why deeply upset two housemates that have contributed so much?

It's true Aaron's a big gameplayer, he has been from the start. He's trying to win it for his son. But it's the gameplay, and depth of personality that makes him so engaging, and I doubt if the series would have held much interest without him. The introduction of his girl's sister was bad enough, but for me, the character assassination was a step too far. If Aaron walks, or doesn't make the final because of how he's been treated, I won't be watching anymore. And I think many thousands would be joining me.

So who's going to win? Even though I'd like it to be Aaron, I've currently got;

1. Jay (same as last week).
2. Aaron (same as last week).
3. Faye (same as last week).
4. Louise (new entry).
5. Alex (down 1 from last week).

For my previous posts on house dynamics, please see http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/whos-going-to-win-big-brother-after.html, http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/whos-going-to-win-big-brother-171011.html, http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/british-big-brother-anton-is-he-going.html, http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/british-big-brother-nominations-update.html, http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/whos-going-to-win-british-big-brother.html and http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/09/who-is-going-to-win-british-big-brother.html

Oh, and if you've got a moment more, please do take a look at my series of time travel novels, at the top of this blog. I sometimes think Aaron wishes he could travel back in time, just a few days....

British Big Brother - Families And Friends Nominate In Place Of The Housemates!

BREAKING NEWS! In a shocking twist that beats the hell out of last week's interference with the nominations result, housemates' families and friends were today asked to nominate, in place of the housemates themselves;

Aaron’s brother voted for Jem and Jay.
Alex’s mum voted for Faye and Jem.
Faye’s mum voted for Harry and Aaron.
Harry’s girlfriend voted for Jay and Jem.
Jay’s mum voted for Aaron and Faye.
Jem’s boyfriend voted for Aaron and Harry.
Louise’s mum voted for Aaron and Harry,
Tom’s mum voted for Aaron and Jem.

The housemates were apparently stunned, when they watched it all unfold, on video. What about Faye's mum voting for Aaron, Faye's boyfriend?

So Aaron and Jem (pictured) are up for eviction this Friday. For me, it'll be Jem to go. Stay tuned.

Who's Going To Win Big Brother - After The Nominations Twist?

I write my latest post on the series, with a bit of a heavy heart. Having surveyed well-known Big Brother comment sites, it would seem that over 90% of people were against this week's nominations 'twist'. After Anton (above) and Jay were nominated by their fellow housemates, both were given the opportunity to choose one other housemate to face eviction with them. Jay chose Harry, probably because he heard Harry imply that Louise (Jay's squeeze) wasn't the brightest of sparks. Anton chose newcomer Jemma (right), because he knew that she was the only remaining housemate he could beat in the public eviction vote.

I couldn't understand the logic of the nominations twist, in terms of keeping viewers. Viewing figures have been steadily declining, and the large majority of those that remain are long-time Big Brother fans and purists. So why upset the purists by interfering with the nominations process, which for 11 previous series has been the heart and soul of Big Brother? What's the point of blogging, or otherwise trying to predict the winner, if the basic rules of the show are changed on a whim, and the endgame is changed as a result (see below)?

I think the producers did it because they knew that either Jay or Anton would pick Jemma to face eviction. As newcomer, and not a particularly entertaining one at that, she was always the only housemate that Anton had a chance against in the public eviction vote. And truth be told, the producers, knowing Jemma is very likely to be evicted tomorrow, wanted Anton to remain with Jay for at least one more week, to keep things spiced up a bit. I can understand that in a way, but it's not fair on Jemma, who is going to lose her place in the house, despite never having received enough nominations to face the public vote.

So what does it all mean, in terms of who is going to win?

I think Aaron and Jay are beginning to get along a little better now. They're both gameplayers, and have both realised that the other is their greatest threat. It won't take long for Aaron to work out that the remaining Wolf Pack members (Jay and Anton) aren't nominating him anymore. And I think Jay and Aaron will both realise that tactical voting would be a great way to put the dangerous new 'fun pair' of Alex and Tom up for eviction against each other.

So I reckon Aaron's group (Aaron, Harry and Faye) will join Jay's group next week, in nominating Tom and Alex for eviction. Tom will lose that battle, and will be evicted, leaving Alex isolated and extremely vulnerable. Tactical voting will be used the following week to put Alex up again, against Anton. Anton will lose out, and will be evicted, leaving just six housemates.

For me, another important development this week has been Louise becoming more active, but her increased involvement has revealed her to be shallow, and a little vulgar. Faye has also been revealed as a bit of a whiner, and will really have to develop in the final weeks to have a chance of winning.

So this week, I've got the following top five;

1. Jay (up 1 from last week).

2. Aaron (up 1).

3. Faye (down 2).

4. Alex (new entry).

5. Harry (down 1).

The Execution of Colonel Gaddafi (Qaddafi)

I'm not going to support the guy. Although he became a friend of sorts to the West, not too many years ago, it's obvious that he presided over some absolutely shocking things.

Today, after returning from a poor round of golf, I walked in the door to the breaking news that Gaddafi (otherwise known as Qaddafi) had been killed or captured. So I sat down, and watched for a few hours, wanting to know whether it was true, wanting to know whether it was really him, wanting to know how it happened.

To begin with, there were a lot of conflicting reports, and the odd photo. But then the news channels started to show mobile phone footage surrounding his capture. Eventually, a phone video was shown of Gaddafi being escorted to a truck by a group of rebels, apparently surrendering. There was blood, much of it dried, down one side of his head. But he walked to the truck, sat on the back of it, and was clearly talking to them.

A later phone video showed him laid out in an ambulance. From the dressings on his stomach, and the circular wounds underneath the dressings, it was obvious that he had been shot twice in the stomach. Blood ran from one of the wounds, back along the centre of his chest, to his neck.

It struck me that the first video didn't show the demeanour of someone who had been shot twice in the stomach. The rebels obviously executed him. Much as he was a tyrant, and even given the obvious advantages of not giving him a courtroom platform to preach from, I was left wondering whether what they did was right. I guess if anyone deserved summary justice, he did, and I suppose it was a better way to go than the inevitable hanging.

But was what happened right? What do you think?

Who's Going To Win Big Brother? October 17 Nominations Forecast

I did mention in my last entry that the feat of climbing enough steps to scale Ben Nevis might save Anton over Aden, but I was still quite surprised to see Anton stay. Although there seems to be a happier feel to the house now, he won't change his confrontational ways much. Will receive six nominations today; from Aaron, Harry, Faye, Jemma, Alex and Louise. Will be put up for eviction with one other person (see below), and will be evicted on Friday.

Louise, in the middle, there. I've always believed her to be a clever gameplayer, sitting back and staying out of trouble, with a plan to emerge from the pack later. This week has proven just what a gameplayer she is. She backed off Jay, telling him last Monday that she wanted to cool off, when she thought he might be put up for eviction against Aaron. But she was all over Jay again like a rash, when she realised that he wasn't going anywhere, because Aden and Anton had also been put up.

She's emerged a little from her shell this week, and has got involved a little more. She certainly has the looks and personality to win, emerging from between the warring Jay and Aaron factions. But after finally having the opportunity to listen to her at length, I no longer believe that she has sufficient substance to win. Will receive one nomination today from Jemma.

Did you notice that Jay all but stopped swearing, after it was revealed he was up for eviction last week? Last Monday's nomination results also made him realise that his Wolf Pack was losing the battle with Aaron's group, and he's been trying to make peace ever since, even summoning Aaron for a private chat in the garden, after Aden was evicted.

I do think Jay is the most genuine of the remaining housemates, even though he knows the game for him is about how to get rid of Aaron. I learnt this week that Jay would have made the final of Katie Price's reality show, but for his Big Brother involvement. There's something engaging about him, and he'll be more and more active, as time goes on. Will gain three nominations today; from Aaron, Harry and Faye.

Aaron is one of the biggest gameplayers in Big Brother history, but is deep and fascinating, in a way Nasty Nick and Marcus Akin were. His plan was always to use his group to get Aaron and Aden out, before targeting isolated Jay. The way people react to that final, inevitable battle will determine the outcome of the series. Aaron or Jay could still win, but it's just as likely that a neutral will take advantage, emerging as winner. I'm sure Aaron was surprised that Anton stayed over Aden, but he should succeed in his aim of getting them both out, before this week is through.

The house is getting to Aaron, though, sometimes compromising his gameplay. He did himself no favours with his long strop over the frosted flakes fight, and will pick up one extra nomination today because of that. Don't be surprised if he tries to sabotage the shopping task again this week. It's a weapon again Jay, who needs food more than Aaron and Harry do. The producers have recognised this tactic, I think, and Big Brother has begun to introduce easy-to-win tasks to gain late night suppers.

Aaron will stick with Faye, now that false Louise has gone back to Jay. The relationship with Faye will get Aaron to the final, but I think he'll have to use his son as his reason for wanting to win, to have a chance of finishing first. He'll probably work that one out in the last couple of weeks. Will pick up four nominations today; from Anton, Jay, Tom and Louise. So will be put up for eviction against Anton. Yesterday's strop saved Jay from being put up as well, I think.

Harry's continued to grow on me. Will vote with Aaron, regardless of his personal opinions. He could make the final, but I don't think a fox hunter can win. Will receive one nomination today from Jay.

Faye's come out of her shell this week a bit, and for me, has demonstrated more substance than Louise. Aaron will carry her to the final, but I think she has worked out that if she backs off a bit from him, closer to the end, she could win on individual personality. She's beginning to remind me of Kate Lawler, when she spats with Aaron, and especially when she puts her hair up. Needs to stop arguing with her sister, though, or she could be nominated heavily next week. And in the near future, at least, she might not survive an eviction battle with Aaron or Jay, or both. Will pick up two nominations today; from Anton and Tom.

That's Alex, on the left, there. Up to now, I've dismissed her as a potential winner, because she's such an airhead. But for the first time, I now believe that she could win. Like Sophie Reade and Rachel Rice, it would be for all the wrong reasons, she has up to now contributed even less than they did. But she's determined to stay positive and carefree, even when chaos is going on all around her, and that's why she could emerge as the winner, from between whatever is left of the two warring factions.

Nice touch by the housemates, getting the expensive hair extensions she wanted from last week's shopping budget. She needed the extensions to help disgiuise her plain looks and personality. Will gain no nominations today.

Tom's lightened up a bit, this week. Forming the new fun pair with Alex is a good move for him. But he's a naive backstabber, and will eventually be caught out. Will gain no nominations today.

Jemma's a bit detached on occasion, like most latecomers. Her submissiveness to Faye doesn't mirror her bravado to others, and to the outside world. Will probably be the next out, after Anton. Will pick up one nomination today, from Alex.

So who's going to win? This year, the dynamics are such that it's hard to pick a winner, but I've now got;

1. Faye (up 4 from last week).
2. Jay (up 1).
3. Aaron (down 1).
4. Harry (same as last week).
5. Louise (down 4).

For my previous posts on house dynamics, please visit http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/british-big-brother-anton-is-he-going.html, http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/british-big-brother-nominations-update.html, http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/whos-going-to-win-british-big-brother.html and http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/09/who-is-going-to-win-british-big-brother.html

Will The Michael Jackson Trial End On Monday? A British Perspective

I've been following the trial of Conrad Murray with interest, on the excellent Sky News channel.

It seems to me that Conrad Murray and his defence team are fighting a desperate losing battle. It looks like Murray panicked, after inadvisably giving Michael Jackson propofol (a surgical anesthetic) as a sleeping draught, and later returning to the room to find he had stopped breathing.

You can understand Murray's state of mind, upon making the discovery. Michael Jackson was one of the most famous people in the world, and Murray would have considered himself ruined, if he couldn't save him.

What happened next is all in the statement Murray gave to police. Such was his state of anxiety, he forgot all of his training, giving heart massage to a patient, whose heart was still beating. He also forgot to promptly call the emergency services, even though he clearly had a cell phone on his person - although I'm sure a part of his failure to call 911 was a desire not to let outsiders know what was happening, since if he had been successful in saving Jackson, the world would never have needed to know.

The defence seem to be implying that some of the timings Murray gave to police were inaccurate. They have nowhere else to go but to argue that there wasn't really a negligent delay in getting help, of course. But I listened intently to defence attorney J. Michael Flanagan, pointing out to cardiologist Alon Steinberg how accurate Murray's timings of earlier dispensations of drugs to Jackson were....

It seems, then, that Murray is guilty of negligence, and therefore manslaughter, whether or not Jackson self-ingested an extra dose of propofol. But that possibility itself seems a little far fetched. Murray estimates that he was out of the room for about two minutes, after observing Jackson sleeping. Is that really enough time for a man coming round from a surgical aneschetic to get up, find the drug, and feed it to himself, before going back to sleep again - especially given that he must been attached to a propofol drip, in addition to the base dose administered? Is it alternatively possible that Murray miscalculated the amount of propofol given to Jackson, in either the base dose or the drip feed?

I do feel some sympathy for Dr. Murray. He was clearly placed under enormous pressure to supply propofol to Jackson, and there was a lot of money and prestige attached to having the singer as a client. The long weekend break from the trial is time for everyone to reflect. Perhaps Murray should plea bargain on Monday, accepting responsibility in exchange for leniency....

British Big Brother - Anton - Is He Going To Kick Off Tonight?

You've got to give the kid some credit. Even though, during the 'Stranded' task, he chose to save Faye just to wind Aaron up, you have to admit that it was a Herculean effort to ascend enough stairs on a climbing machine to top Ben Nevis.

I don't think it's enough to save him from eviction tonight, but there is a just a small chance that Aden might beat him to the door. Anton's later sexist rant to Louise didn't do him any favours, either.

What I'm wondering about tonight is Anton's reaction to the near certainty of eviction. The pot has been simmering between him and Aaron for a while now, and is close to boiling over. Anton has a real nasty streak in him, which he's struggling to keep bottled up, and he's done well so far to restrict his feelings towards Aaron to a few very choice comments.

Aaron's planned it this way all along, of course. He quite bravely decided to take the Wolf Pack (Jay, Aden and Anton) on, after they were partly responsible for driving Mark out. That's what the deliberate sabotage of the last two shopping tasks were all about, and he's been pushing their buttons more and more lately, trying to prise a reaction out of them that will put them in a bad light.

The question is, will hearing news of his eviction push Anton over the edge? I think he might just conclude that it's over for him, so why not give Aaron a mouthful, shove or worse on the way out?

I hope BB security are primed up, just in case......

For my previous posts on house dynamics, please visit http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/british-big-brother-nominations-update.html, http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/whos-going-to-win-british-big-brother.html and http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/09/who-is-going-to-win-british-big-brother.html

And for an update on who I think might win the series, watch this space over the weekend, after tonight's eviction....

Rick Friedman's Review of 'Intrepid - The Two Storms'

Check out this review of my novel 'Intrepid - The Two Storms', by Rick Friedman of Goodreads;

'As is often the case with debut writers, the reader is often hesitant when he/she reads the second book in a series. The old "Sophmore Jinx" is a common fear. I am happy to report that this is CERTAINLY NOT the case with The Two Storms (Intrepid #2), master writer Steve Stone's follow-up to his brilliant first sci-fi/thriller Intrepid.

'The Two Storms (Intrepid #2) is like reuniting with old friends, Colonel Lance Tucker and Gen. Jack Nelson are back, and a wonderful welcome to them! Combining two genres, thriller and sci-fi perfectly, is the sign of a superb writer, and Mr. Stone is most definitely that.

'All the excitement, thrills, plots and extremely well drawn characters from Intrepid #1 are - if possible - even more refined in this second book. I was taken from the very first page, and the action, twists and intrigue did not let up until I read the very last word.

'In creating a villain such as "The Chinaman", a ruthless yet far from stereotypical assassin, Mr Stone has once again shown that he has the ability to fine tune his villains as well as his heroes. It is very easy to make a "bad guy" bad, but to go far deeper into such a character as to make him so very complex is a testament to Mr. Stone's writing acumen. This is a villain the reader will not soon forget!

'The plot, which includes time-travel, with the goal of preventing an assassination - as well as all the sub-plots and myriad of twists and turns are so deftly handled that the many parts of this most unique of books come together to form a very satisfying whole. As this is the 2nd book in a (so far) projected four book series - the only negative thing I can say is that I will now have to wait to read the third instalment! This series is THAT GOOD!'

AN OFFICIAL JAMES MASON COMMUNITY BOOK CLUB MUST READ
RICK FRIEDMAN
FOUNDER
THE JAMES MASON COMMUNITY BOOK CLUB

British Big Brother - Nominations Update, Jay v Aaron - What Does It All Mean?

I was mildly surprised to learn that no fewer than five housemates have been put up to face eviction this week - Jay, Aaron, Faye, Aden and Anton.

There's obviously been some subtle nomination collusion going on within Jay's group (Jay, Anton and Aden), and Aaron's group (Aaron, Harry and Faye). I think Harry's escaped the public vote because Jay's group, in the true spirit of divide and conquer, all nominated Faye and Aaron. We'll find out for sure tonight, I guess.

There's little doubt that Anton will be evicted this coming Friday. For weeks, many have been saying that if he's put up for eviction, he's gone, because of his arrogant streak. And that's going to leave Jay outnumbered and exposed. Next week, there can be little doubt that Jay and Aden will be the only two housemates put up for eviction. Aaron, Faye and Harry will all nominate them, and I think Aden and Jay will also get votes from Alex and Jemma, who's going to work out pretty quickly why her sister has been put up for eviction this week. Aden made a big mistake, when he told Faye he hadn't nominated her, when in fact he had.

With Anton and Aden both gone, this Friday and the next, Jay will be left alone and isolated against Aaron's group. But he will be much more difficult to shift from the house than his two cohorts. He put a brave face on Louise's decision to cool off with him, but make no mistake, he was absolutely gutted, and it can only make him more isolated in the weeks to come. There's going to be a lot more pillow punching going on.

A canny one, that Louise. On Sunday night, she was rolling around with Jay in bed, in the private room, and the very next day, she tells him that she wants to back off. She had this week's nominations worked out in her head, of course, and decided that Aaron's group would be a better bet, long term. Did you notice that during Aaron's cleverly engineered chat with Louise about Jay, she told Aaron that she could have a meaningful conversation with him, in a way she couldn't with Jay? But I didn't see her having any difficulty chatting with Jay in the private room....

Now Aaron's a real gameplayer, very similar to Nasty Nick. I wonder if, over the next couple of weeks or so, he'll let Jemma prise him away from Faye, and take up instead with Louise. Louise has been staying out of trouble until now, and is planning to emerge from her shell once the field has narrowed a bit, just like Kate Lawler did. If she took up with Aaron, I think it would guarantee them both a place in the final. And I think they both know it....

For my previous posts on house dynamics, please visit http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/whos-going-to-win-british-big-brother.html and http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/09/who-is-going-to-win-british-big-brother.html

And be sure to watch this space, as the series develops....

Kingshill Warriors Win UEFA Champions League!

I promised I would get back to you on my attempts to win the UEFA Champions League on the splendid Sega Playstation 2 game 'Let's Make A Soccer Team'.

After 50 seasons, I finally won the trophy, defeating Inter Milan 3-0 in the final.  The team that won the Champions League was;

Okonski (Poland), Rio Ferdinand (England), Ashley Cole (England), Puyol (Spain), Gerrard (England), Ronaldo (Portugal), Robinho (Brazil), Giggs (Wales), Owen (England), Rooney (England), Henry (France).

I await the World Club Championship with interest. I currently have 21 English Premiership titles, 13 FA Cups (including 10 Premiership and FA Cup doubles), 3 Europa League titles and 2 European Super Cups.

I can thoroughly recommend this marvellous game - every time someone walks in the room, they say 'I didn't know there was a big match on the TV today,' or 'I didn't know Wayne Rooney was playing today.' Made in Japan, and sponsored by Italian football teams AC Roma and Juventus, it's that real, from graphics to playing and management.

For my previous posts on this, please visit http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/06/best-football-team-in-world-is_29.html and http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/06/best-football-team-in-world-is.html

Who's Going To Win British Big Brother? An Update

Here's an update to my first blog on this subject at http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/09/who-is-going-to-win-british-big-brother.html

I had Jay tagged as an unlikely winner, a couple of weeks ago. But in the last week or so he's become more miserable, and has started to swear a lot more - too much to give him a chance of winning, I think. It's all about the situation with Aaron, of course - more on that below. The main feature of the show is now Jay's group (Jay, Aden and Anton) versus Aaron's group (Aaron, Harry and Faye). Animosity is there, and it's all going to come to a head, sooner rather than later. The winner of that conflict could well win the show, but it's also possible that the two camps could end up destroying each other's chances, letting a neutral through to win.

Jay is still the biggest character in the house, but is guaranteed at least three nominations today, possibly more. And a key development today is that he's fallen out with Louise, his squeeze up to now - more on that below, too.

Aaron's been a real game player from the start, and is for me very reminiscent of scheming Nasty Nick. Aaron's trying to win the money for his son, and there's nothing wrong with that. It's the depth of his personality that makes him so interesting, and make no mistake, almost everything he does is calculated. When he's not sure about how to adapt his game to the latest situation, he withdraws somewhere quiet for a while, taking time to figure things out, before coming up with a measured response for people.

I don't think he liked brash Jay from the beginning, but decided to tolerate him, in the interests of staying out of trouble. What pushed him over the edge with Jay was when Mark left - they were close, and Mark made it pretty clear that Jay was a big factor in him going home. Since that happened, the battle lines have been drawn, and Jay is now Aaron's target.

Just like Nasty Nick would have done, Aaron's been involved in some pretty serious gameplaying this week, regarding the situation. After a frosty spell, he's beginning to win Tom over to his side. And he seems to have gained Alex's sympathy a little as well. He's already tried once to turn Aden against Jay, and today, he cleverly engineered a private conversation with Louise, just after she and Jay agreed to cool it a bit.

I think Aaron's guaranteed at least four nominations today. It could be him against Jay for eviction this week. I certainly hope not - that battle should wait until much later, even until the final.

Jemma, new housemate and Faye's older sister. For me, she's a bit too upfront and manipulative to win. The producers put her in to mess up Aaron's little game with Faye. Jemma had seen it all on TV of course, before she went in, and has got Aaron worked out a bit. Aligning herself with Jay is a mistake, I think. Will get into arguments with Faye, Aaron and probably Jay before too long, and won't last too long in the house.

I've seen a bit of a different side to Aden this week. Behind the rap bravado, he's quite a sensitive and thoughtful guy, and seems to have recovered from losing nasty Rebeckah. Becoming Jay's henchman is a mistake, though, it'll bring out his aggressive streak, and he'll eventually be swamped out of the house.

Harry had already started to grow on me, and he's developed more as a character this week. He's interesting, and I couldn't believe it when he took Anton on in a big argument over being deceitful, and shouted him down. Could do well long-term, but his support of fox hunting rules him out as a winner, I think.

Alex, on the left, has been touted as a favourite to win. She's a nice enough girl, and keeps herself out of trouble, that's for sure. But she's no game player, and is too much of an airhead to win. She was actually serious when she said that visiting Willy Wonka's Chocolate Factory in America was a big ambition, and didn't believe Harry, when he told her that it didn't exist. She's also outgunned by the other girls, on both looks and personality.

There's a real nasty streak in ex-gang member Anton. He's done quite well to bottle it up a bit until now, but it will come out more and more over time, and is the reason he can't win. I couldn't believe it when he backed down to Harry.

Faye's going to stick with Aaron, I think, in spite of her sister's obvious caution about him. Aaron does like her, I'm sure, but he's letting her believe there's more to it than there actually is, as exploiting her affection is part of his game. Aaron might carry her to the final, her relationship with him was what kept her in over Maisy. But Faye's a bit too quiet to win, I think.

That's Louise, in the middle. There's a shrewd gameplayer behind the innocent facade. I think there has been definite evidence this week that she's sitting back and staying out of trouble, with the intention of emerging later, when the field has narrowed a bit. She latched on to Jay when he was the kingpin of fun, and I wonder if it's any coincidence that she has today backed off of him, now he's become duller, and more antagonistic. I wonder if she thinks Aaron will win the central battle of the series, and has opened her options up, in terms of switching sides for a while.

I think she'll come out of her shell towards the end, like Kate Lawler did. And she might just have the looks and personality to become the winning neutral, between the two warring groups.

After falling out with Aaron, I think Tom's come to realise that Aaron's group is probably the right side of the fence to be on. But underneath the geekiness, there's a spiteful, backstabbing streak, which will be his undoing before the final.

So who's going to win? I've changed my opinion since my last entry - that's what so engaging about Big Brother;

1. Louise (up 1).
2. Aaron (up 1).
3. Jay (down 2).
4. Harry (new entry).
5. Faye (new entry).

Of course, if Aaron and Jay are put up for eviction against one another this week, the whole dynamics of the house will change.

And for a surprising update on this developing story, please visit http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/british-big-brother-nominations-update.html